The Bayesian Tragedy

A Storm Like No Other

We often write about cautionary tales in this forum. This particular story chills us to the bone with a horrifying picture of the 16 minutes it took for a well-crewed yacht, quietly slumbering after a celebration, to get swallowed by the sea.  Here, in a montage of unforeseen forces, an experienced captain and 9 crew members were unable to prevent the Bayesian, and 7 of its passengers, from making the voyage to Davy Jones’ locker.

Almost every major news outlet ran this story for several days as it unfolded. It seemed that nobody could get enough of it.  How could a very large, modern yacht designed for open-sea sailing, and with a professional crew aboard, succumb to a storm while anchored in a harbor near Sicily?  Unlikely speculations took hold. A kind of sea-borne tornado called a waterspout was originally thought to be the cause. Like a huge whip, this spout was thought to have come crashing down on top of the Bayesian, lashing at it and tearing away at the main cabin, letting water gush in.

The weather did play a role. It is now believed that a “downburst” descended in the area and created unusually powerful winds. A downburst happens when the elements conspire in a thunderstorm to produce a powerful downward gust that, when it hits the ground, creates a shockwave of wind that pushes outward from the center. Winds can reach 100mph.

Whatever it was, the result was sudden and catastrophic.  The Bayesian was thrust on her side and water rushed in rapidly, making it impossible for some passengers to fight their way out of the bowels of the ship. They may have tried to grapple up staircases against a waterfall but that would have been futile.  This might have been attempted in complete darkness, since the ship’s electrical panel was flooded in the early stages and the lights went out before she sank.

Somehow, 5 victims ended up together in one cabin, while a 6^th, the owner’s 18-year-old daughter Hannah, was trapped alone in another. A 7^th, the cook, made it out of the boat but was found dead in the water nearby.  He was the lucky one.  The ones in the sinking ship would have been alive for a short while. According to the coroner, they apparently asphyxiated on thinning pockets of air. He attributed their deaths to “dry-drowning”. It’s not a stretch to think they made that dark journey to the seabed 160 feet down and felt her bump on the bottom.

The true blame has yet to be written. Lawsuits cropped up immediately. One was launched within days by the shipbuilder against the crew, but was soon retracted after some infighting within the parent company. The investigation continues and both crew and builder are the focus.

Could the crew have done more to prevent the tragedy? It is hard to argue that they are entirely blameless. A storm was approaching and the crew should have been aware of that. They could have brought the ship into the harbor beforehand. They could have pulled anchor and weathered the storm further out where they could maneuver more freely. There is speculation that not all hatches were shut and that the keel was not lowered. Both of these could have spelled doom for the Bayesian. If she tipped significantly on her side during high winds, she could have taken on water quickly through those hatches. A lowered keel would have stabilized that leaning. Lifting anchor and pointing her directly into the wind would have prevented a sidelong wind from toppling her. (This was done by the crew of another large sailboat nearby, and they avoided any mishaps). At least two crew members should have been awake in shifts. Apparently there was one (maybe) awake crew member that night.

The builder is also under fire.  The single 237 foot aluminum mast was the tallest in the world, and was a design modification requested by a previous owner. It weighed in the neighborhood of 24 tons by itself. That’s 48 thousand pounds towering above the boat. It also had six shroud spreaders that would be somewhat susceptible to catching the wind. Some naval architects believe the mast, along with other features, were a diagram of doom. Models show that a mere 62mph wind could have tipped the Bayesian enough to bring water into any open vents or hatches. The New York Times published an article that speculates heavily against the design. (They’re now being sued by the builders.) The builders on the other hand show that their design was approved by the American Bureau of Shipping and the British Maritime and Coastguard Agency. They have a solid argument that if the basic storm precautions were followed in closing the hatches, lowering the keel and lifting anchor, this disaster would have been avoided.

We have better vision in hindsight.  When a storm gale increases rapidly, circumstances become very fluid. Seemingly small decisions can have major implications.  This story strikes a deep chord.  We seem fixated on events where nature challenges our technology and complacency, especially ones that involve rich people trapped alive in a vessel plunging into the depths of the ocean. It’s more than that, though. It pulls on a thread in our collective memory. It’s another iteration of the Titanic, and countless tales before that in our maritime history.  We crave our narratives of the remorseless seas and cannot shake the images etched in our minds of those brutally slain by nature’s indifference.

Professional Spotlight

This accident required a rapid response from a number of specialists. The Italian Coast Guard (both air and sea), the Italian fire brigade, medical personnel, an underwater drone, a local blacksmith (interestingly, to make a special jack needed to break into the hull), investigative units, and a salvage crew.  The one I would like to spotlight here is the Search and Rescue (SAR) divers, a unique breed of scuba divers who are trained to do rescue and recovery underwater.

Imagine diving down to a depth of 160 feet, where there is virtually no natural light, and inserting yourself into the narrow staircases and halls of a sunken yacht where you might find survivors, mindless with their last breaths, or bodies. The risk is no joke. Cave and wreck divers are specialists with specific certifications. Under calm conditions, those kinds of dives are still very dangerous. But if your target happened to still be alive, breathing in an air pocket, how would you get a panicking person to the surface from 160 feet?

With the Bayesian, there was likely no delusion about what they would find. Too much time had passed for anyone to survive. Still, you would have to be a strong-willed person to cope with recovering dead bodies from a horror chamber deep in the sea. Those guys deserve a bonus.

Update on the Investigation:
The Bayesian has been raised from the seabed, and the investigation has entered a new phase. An inquiry has begun on possible manslaughter charges for the captain and crew, while the UK’s Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB) has put some attention on the stability of the boat design, balancing the question of whether it was the boat design that caused the accident, or whether the crew…. The plot thickens.